How does the Kyrie trade affect the value of Houston's Nets picks?

Not all sunshine and roses

Rockets fans have good reason to pay attention to every major move the Nets make, considering Houston control over their first round picks until the year 2027. Now that the Nets have traded away James Harden and Kyrie Irving in back-to-back seasons, the implications for those first rounders could be massive. The Nets have transformed from a three-headed monster to a heliocentric team built around the talents of a still-very-capable Kevin Durant. And while that team figures to be pretty good, it’s hard to argue against the idea that their ceiling has been lowered.

Contrary to what some fans may believe right now, this trade has only added more uncertainty to the value of those Rockets’ owned picks. Before, the organization was more-or-less banking that Durant, Irving, and Harden would be threats to leave in free agency OR stay with the team and age out of their prime by the time those later picks start converting. They knew the immediate value of those picks would be bad, but the predictability of how star trios have aged or separated would allow patience to work in their favor.

After these two trades, the Nets have taken some of their future back in their own hands. They will no longer be in the unenviable position of the Nets organization from a decade ago - hopelessly watching their aging stars deliver prized assets to another team. They have an MVP caliber player in his prime, they’ve added three first round picks back, and they’ve restocked their cupboard with players under contract that could net them even more first round picks in the future.

That value of those picks will now be determined by these four factors:

1. Kevin Durant’s interest in staying long-term

If Durant asks out again before next season, the immediate value of the picks likely spike because it’s hard to imagine a return package that makes the Nets better without his services. However, Brooklyn could mitigate how badly the fall is by intentionally pursuing a package that keeps them competitive. By doing this, they restock their cupboard with draft picks and valuable players while keeping the Brooklyn market attractive for star free agents.

They could even could turn around and trade all the assets they’ve gotten from the Harden, Irving, and Durant deals for a star that drops the value of those picks right back down. It’s hard to know. But one thing’s clear - Durant demanding a trade actually gives the Nets more options and control over their own future. They would no longer be at the mercy of aging stars nor will they have a gun to their head to exhaust all possible resources to improve the team.

This would be the opposite of the position Houston put them in with the Harden trade two years ago.

2. If Durant stays, will he remain healthy for each of the following three seasons?

Note: I believe it’s despicable to root for injuries or celebrate them when they happen, but this exercise is meant to take a cold and calculating look at the value of these Rockets-owned picks.

If Durant decides to fully commit himself to the Nets but tragically suffers a season-ending injury in the summer or early part of next season, the Rockets could be looking at receiving the unprotected first round pick of a team without Durant next year. It’s important to acknowledge this because the risk for these types of injuries have typically gone up for players in their mid-to-late 30s. If such an injury had occurred before, the Nets had both Irving and Harden to propel them past worst-case scenarios. Unless the Nets can pull off a trade for another star player, they’re now left with hoping Durant stays healthy.

3. If Durant stays, how will he age?

Points two and three are the most important reasons Rockets fans should actually be rooting for Durant to stay in Brooklyn. Had the Nets decided to complete the often-speculated trade with Los Angeles centered around Russell Westbrook and two future first round picks, rooting for a departure would be the right move. This is because Westbrook at this point in his career is the player equivalent of salary filler and would immediately be bought out upon arrival to a new team - including the Nets. Executing such a trade would be Brooklyn signalling to rest of the league to bring their best offers because Durant is now on the market. More important for this conversation though, it would also signal that they’re comfortable viewing the Rockets-owned picks as a sunk cost as they transition to a long rebuild.

However, by opting for a package centered around capable players like Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith, the Nets have intentionally kept open a pathway to being competitive post-Durant. This means the most predictable ways the Rockets could get lottery picks out of Brooklyn would be age or injury-related-regression from Durant. As we’ve seen the last three years, even LeBron James is not immune to father time.

4. How will the Nets manage their newly stocked war chest of assets?

Because of the assets accumulated through the Harden and Irving trades, the Nets actually have a pathway towards acquiring another star player. If they take advantage of that opportunity, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of star they pursue. How good will the star be? How old will the star be? Will acquiring the star be a smarter move than standing pat?

This will almost certainly have an impact on the Rockets-owned Nets picks. What kind of impact it has is impossible to know until Brooklyn actually pulls the trigger on such a trade.

5. If Durant asks out, what will the return package be?

As mentioned earlier, Rockets fans should be rooting hard against Durant asking out of Brooklyn. The last thing Houston wants is for the Nets to swap out 34-year-old Durant with younger players that could keep them viable as an Eastern Conference playoff team. However, there’s no guarantee the Nets are interested in such a package for Durant. The possibility remains that Brooklyn decides to do what the Rockets did with James Harden and place a premium on first round picks in exchange for Durant.

If they’re willing to go as far as taking worthless salary filler back, they could tank their prospects of remaining competitive and thereby, increase the short-term value of Houston’s picks. It’s a long-shot though because it’s pretty hard to get back salary filler that’s as bad as what the Rockets got for Harden. And that’s why the best move for Rockets fans would be Durant standing pat. You don’t want the Nets to have another opportunity to take control of their own destiny than they already have.

6. Can the Nets get their own picks back?

The ultimate way the Rockets could maximize the value of the Nets picks would be by trading them. And there’s no team out there that values these picks more than the Nets themselves. What we’re proposing here is the kind of full circle that would involve Houston sending the Nets their first rounders back (or at least some of them) in exchange for Kevin Durant.

As far as I could tell, a trade of this scale has never been executed before. Teams have certainly gotten control of picks back before, but never to this degree. Such a move would be historic and would likely mark the end of a Rockets rebuild. It’s unclear how interested the Rockets would be in pursuing such a move without a more ready-to-win roster set in place. With that said, crazier things have happened in the NBA.

As you can see, we still don’t quite know how the Irving trade will affect the Rockets. What we have gathered so far based on the return Brooklyn got for Irving is that there are now just as many bad outcomes for Houston as there are good. What the Nets managed to receive for a mercurial 30-year-old star on the last year of his contract is well beyond what anyone could’ve reasonably expected them to get. The best anyone can do is wait to see how this Durant situation plays out in Brooklyn.