Jabari Smith Jr.'s not your traditional star prospect

Tantalizing and head scratching

By now, many Rockets fans have gotten the chance to view Jabari Smith Jr. for the first time in the NBA Summer League. And to avoid redundancy, here’s the blurb I wrote for Smith in my big board:

As one would expect, every player in this tier is the number one overall pick on at least one major big board. However, of the three, Jabari Smith Jr. seems to be number one on the most big boards. And if I had to predict someone from this tier emerging as the consensus number one, it would be Smith. Kind of like Chet Holmgren, there are no glaring weak spots in his game. He’s got size, unbelievable versatility defensively, and is probably the best shooter in this entire draft class. I feel very comfortable projecting Smith Jr. to be a 40% three-point shooter at the NBA level.

So why is he number three on this list? Simply put, I don’t have a high level of confidence in Smith Jr. becoming a great creator off the dribble or playmaker. In most cases, when you’re drafting this high, elite shot creation and/or good playmaking potential is a premium. Of course it’s not the only important quality to consider, but it’s one of the main ones. And considering that the players above him on this list have more flashes of shot creation ability off the bounce, it’s hard not to dock Smith Jr. a little bit. And at the same time, because he’s such a phenomenal shooter with awesome range defensively, there’s a credible case for him going number one.

The level of difficulty on some of the three-pointers Smith Jr. was hitting at the college level contributes to my belief it will translate pretty cleanly to the NBA. He’s going to stretch defenses to their logical end-points and make them pay for shading towards dribble penetration. This makes him a logically great pick-and-pop partner for teams with dynamic slashing guards. If he improves as a ball handler even a little bit, he could be a very good complimentary star.

And defensively, he’s got awesome size and mobility combined with a seemingly non-stop motor. There’s little doubt that he’ll be able to play almost every major defensive scheme in the NBA. More specifically, he has the potential to be a truly special switch-defender. He’ll also be able to make up for any glaring weak defenders a team is deploying at the center position. This is a very important quality to keep in mind as we move ahead here.

He’s also the youngest prospect on this list by almost six months so one could make a pretty persuasive argument that he has time to become a better shot creator. I just think it’s important to recognize that the floor with Smith Jr. may not be as high because the shot creation isn’t there yet.

Obviously I spent a fair bit of time discussing Smith's limited shot creation. It’s why I placed him third. As many are discovering, it really sticks out to you when you watch full games of Smith. It’s unusual for star prospects to be this limited as ball handlers. I’m sure it’s not what many expected when they saw Smith play for the first time.

That doesn’t mean he’s not a star prospect though. He’s just different.

Unlike last year, it’s been nearly impossible to find good player comparisons for this year’s top prospects and Smith is a prime example of this. It’s possible we haven’t seen a player like him before and it’s also possible that because he’s so young, his development as a player will ruin even the best comparisons. Right off the bat though, I can tell you who Jabari Smith Jr. isn’t - Kevin Durant. These comparisons were always incredibly dumb and lazy because Durant was just a much more advanced ball handler than Smith at 19-years-old. 

He remains one of the best ball handlers in basketball today and Smith’s starting from a much lower baseline. So let’s try and find something more fitting.

Many, including myself, have used “6-foot-10 Klay Thompson” to describe Smith and after going back to watch Thompson as a prospect, that doesn’t feel right either. Thompson was also a better ball handling prospect. With that said, it’s still a much better comparison than Durant. Instead of trying to find the perfect comparison, let’s search for a reasonable NBA floor, median, and ceiling outcome for Smith.

Floor outcome: Rashard Lewis (2x NBA All-Star)

Whoever first came up with this as a comparison for Jabari Smith Jr. deserves a raise because it feels spot on. People who scoff at it likely don’t remember or haven’t watched prime Rashard Lewis. You also need to realize the context of the NBA when Lewis was drafted two decades ago. If you could shoot or defend on the perimeter even a little bit, you were disqualified from playing a big man position. It took until Lewis’ 10th season until a team was smart enough to start him at power forward.

“Stretch fours” have existed throughout NBA history, but before the 2005-06 Phoenix Suns, they weren’t known for defending out on the perimeter and mostly stretched the floor with mid-range jumpers with a sprinkling of threes.. In this way, Rashard Lewis and Shawn Marion revolutionized the game of basketball and began to shoot 5, 6, sometimes even 7 three-pointers per game while regularly defending perimeter players. Unlike Smith, Lewis was also a solid interior scorer that could score with his back to the basket when fed. Unlike Lewis, Smith has a very impressive propensity to draw fouls which help aid his efficiency.

Like Lewis, Smith has a greater ability to defend on the perimeter, but has a much better motor and baseline ability entering the league. 

And more broadly, that’s why I believe Smith will have a better NBA career than Lewis: he’s starting from a better baseline. Not only from a better baseline in talent, but a better baseline in league understanding. Rashard Lewis probably came into the league 10 years too early. By the time teams understood how to use him, he was on the decline athletically. Lewis also didn’t shoot enough three-pointers for how talented of a shooter he was (4.4 threes attempted on a 38.6% clip). Think about how many more All-Star games he would’ve made if he was drafted in 2009? 

Well Jabari Smith Jr. got drafted in 2022 and the Rockets will know exactly how to use him. He’s at a tremendous advantage.

Median Outcome: LaMarcus Aldridge (7x NBA All-Star)

(I’m unsure if these next two comparisons have been made before, but they came to me as I watched more and more of Smith this past week.)

Again, this is not a sexy comparison, but getting a player LaMarcus Aldridge with the third overall pick is a very nice outcome. Aldridge ended up as the best player to come out of the 2006 NBA Draft class and currently has 50/50 odds of ending up in the Basketball Hall of Fame. There are three things that differentiate Jabari Smith from Aldridge right off the bat: Smith’s ability to defend on the perimeter and his willingness to take three-pointers. Like with Lewis, Smith has a better motor than Aldridge and can switch pick and rolls . Although he entered the league with defensive promise, Aldridge was basically an average defender during his prime who could only play in a drop scheme.

That said, Aldridge was also a strong body that developed a go-to move package in the post that he could rely upon once he got to the NBA and that can’t be said about Smith. Smith doesn’t have the handle Aldridge had coming out of school either, but it’s very achievable with reasonable player development. They both have beautiful shooting forms and love getting to the mid-range. There’s little doubt that Aldridge would’ve been a reliable three-point shooter if wasn’t so stubborn about taking them (career 81.3% free throw shooter). 

Smith was like this in high school, but very wisely extended his range out to beyond the arc by the time he got to college. This comparison makes a lot of sense when you look at what both players like to do offensively, but the single biggest reason Smith has a higher ceiling is his mentality. When he was told he’d be a great three-point shooter, he was willing to do it. When he has to defend out of position, he takes great pride in stepping up to the plate.

Ceiling: Paul George (7x NBA All-Star - and counting)

I’m not confident Smith ever reaches this ceiling, but it’s within his range of outcomes. Quite frankly, few expected that Paul George would ever become the player he did, which is why I’m willing to make this comparison. Coming out of Fresno State, George was extremely tantalizing, but scouts had two big question marks about him: ball handling and shot creation. Sound familiar?

While George was a more fluid handler than Jabari Smith Jr. currently is, he was turnover prone and still unreliable at the NBA level. George worked extremely hard and it culminated in an All-Star selection and Most Improved player honors age 22. He’s one of the NBA’s greatest player development stories and it’s not unreasonable to project Smith to have a similar story because his intangibles are so strong. Although George was a more explosive athlete and at-rim finisher, Smith’s baseline motor and defensive versatility is stronger. 

It definitely helped that George took a backseat role to Danny Granger, David West, and Roy Hibbert on those early Pacers teams. He could work on developing his handle and shot creation in the background while being a floor spacer for a very good Indiana team in the foreground. It would be smart for the Rockets to employ a similar strategy with Smith. Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Kevin Porter Jr. are currently better shot creators than Smith and should command higher usage in Smith’s first two seasons. Smith could be a valuable floor spacer as he puts in hours with associate head coach John Lucas on the rest of his game.

It needs to be emphasized that this is a low percentage outcome for Smith and that he can be an impactful player without ever reaching it. 

The bottom line here is that Smith isn't a Jalen Green kind of prospect. Prospects like Green are easier to spot, project as stars, and explain. Their impact will show up on box scores, highlight reels, and high-level playoff games. NBA history is littered with similar All-Stars. They just work. 

Smith is harder to project because of how unique he is. It doesn’t mean he can’t have an All-Star impact. It just means that it might take some time for that impact to show up on your average box score. He could be an early plus-minus monster because of his hustle and mobility on defense, but that isn’t going to go viral in the same way a Jalen Green dunk will. Even if he becomes an All-Star, it’s very possible he never becomes someone that is expected to shoulder a heavy load of the offense.

What’s important to remember is that Houston is not drafting him to be a usage machine. Still, it’ll be interesting to see where in this spectrum of All-Star outcomes he ends up landing.