Rockets 2023 Draft Grades
What a night
With the 4th overall pick, the Houston Rockets selected…
Amen Thompson
Grade:
A+
Explainer:
Most talent evaluators have been in agreement for weeks that the 2023 class has four players with reasonable All-Star upside: Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, Brandon Miller, and Amen Thompson. It was unlikely that Houston would ever be in position to select Wembanyama or Henderson without trading up. So if they were going to stay here, they had only one job: select whoever of Miller or Thompson falls to you.
And at the end of the day, it appears that guy was most likely always going to be Thompson. Let’s start with this very sobering reality: Amen Thompson’s age and lack of shooting ability gives him greater bust potential than any lottery pick Houston has selected over these past three seasons. This is a bet that carries risk that you can’t just brush off. Per Kelly Iko of The Athletic, the Rockets carefully considered their options before coming to a consensus decision on Wednesday evening.
With all that said, they absolutely made the correct decision to go with Thompson. Not only did he have the greatest star probability remaining on the board, he probably has the second highest upside of anyone in this draft class. It’s been said before, but Thompson is already one of the best athletes in the NBA. He’s fast, he’s strong, he’s explosive, he’s quick-twitch, and he’s an awesome leaper.
He combines that athleticism with good touch and craft around the basket that led to high-level finishing in Overtime Elite. An explosive first step and strong finishing ability have always been baseline qualities that talent evaluators look for when trying to identify star perimeter prospects. And did I mention he was 6’7” with a 7’0” wingspan? Thompson may not be an elite defender yet, but there’s reason to believe he can get there because of this length, mobility, and general effort level.
What truly makes a special talent is his passing ability. Not only is Thompson probably the most unselfish player in this draft class, he probably has the most diverse arsenal of passes under his belt. Thompson can throw hit-ahead passes, cross-court passes, dump-off passes, trailer passes, and he often attempts these with Jason Williams style. He could be exactly the offensive engine Houston’s been searching for these past three seasons. On paper, Amen Thompson and Jalen Green looks like an athletic match-made in heaven in that way.
To reiterate, the lack of jumper makes Thompson a “boom or bust” kind of pick. At the very least, he’ll need to develop a floater or capable mid-range jumpers as a counter for when teams wall off the paint. Rockets staffers like John Lucas and Ben Sullivan will need to put in long hours with Thompson to improve his touch.
If this pick hits, it could unlock a lot of on-roster talent that haven’t hit their stride yet like Jabari Smith and Usman Garuba. It it misses, it was 100% worth the swing.
With the 20th overall pick, the Houston Rockets selected…
Cam Whitmore
Grade:
A+
Explainer:
Seldom does a player that was universally mocked in the Top 7 fall out the lottery, much less to the 20th pick. And yet, that’s exactly what happened on Thursday night when Villanova swingman Cam Whitmore fell down the board to Houston for vaguely reported “health concerns”. It’s unclear what those concerns were, but assuming they were legitimate, he still shouldn’t have fallen this far.
At a certain point in the draft, you have to swing for the fences. And no team in the NBA has the luxury of being okay with a pick failing like the Houston Rockets. The Rockets have already selected nine first round picks over the past three seasons and have acquired other young players outside of the first round (Kevin Porter, KJ Martin, etc..). In addition to being a franchise that’s always swung for the fences, they have absolutely nothing to lose.
This is the recent history of the 20th pick in the draft:
Some of these guys certainly turned out to be nice players, but there’s not an All-Star selection in sight. Cam Whitmore is a 6’7’ with a 6’9” wingspan that’s built like a brick brickhouse who attacks the basket like a freight train. He’s a powerful athlete that’s developed a reliable jumper over the last two years. He may not have the longest wingspan, but he’s very active on the glass and as an on-ball defender. Best of all, he’s only 18 years old!
Does he have blinders when he barrels to the rim? Yes. Does he often settle for shots he has no business taking? Yup. Is his off-ball defense troublesome? Certainly. Does any of that matter when Houston used their 20th pick on him? Hell no.
I personally would’ve taken the gamble of trading up for Whitmore as early as 11th in the draft. Houston tried to do this, chose to stand pat instead, and still got him for absolutely nothing. This guy is an absolute workhorse, a projection-model darling in the analytics community, and he’s incredibly motivated after having to eat a slice of humble pie on Thursday night.
If I found out tomorrow that he had no cartilage in both knees, I would still give Houston this draft grade. Sometimes the home-run play is the no-brainer selection.
Overall grade:
A+
Explainer:
Unlike the last two seasons, Houston’s draft haul tonight has real bust potential - Thompson for his shooting and Whitmore for whatever injury concerns are out there.
However:
It’s unlikely that they both bust.
They would still the right selections in their spot if they busted.
Houston is at the stage of their rebuild where they can afford to have guys bust.
After a three year teardown period, the Rockets are headed into this summer with over $60 million in cap space, loads of raw talent and athleticism, and hope. This is the polar opposite of Houston’s situation three years ago when they were trying to improve an aging roster with limited financial flexibility and a barren war chest. What GM Rafael Stone has accomplished to this point is remarkable.
Let’s see what he has in store for free agency.