Salman's 2023 NBA Big Board + Rockets Mock Draft (Tier 3)
Salman's 2023 NBA Big Board + Rockets Mock Draft (Tier 3)
Floor vs. Ceiling
And we’ve finally reached it.
The tier of players the Rockets will actually be drafting from and the one that’s caused a small bit of division. From a quality standpoint, both players here are attractive options with star upside. The differentiating quality here is how high the upside goes and how likely they are of reaching that upside. Considering Houston is picking fourth, the decision is likely going to be out of their hands, but it’s a fun debate.
Tier 3
Amen Thompson
Age: 20 years old
Height: 6’7”
Wingspan: 6’9”
Weight: 215 lbs
Position: PG
When you’re drafting this high, my philosophy has always been to swing for the fences. The only time this approach isn’t worth it is when the upside candidate clashes stylistically with the rest of your roster. Upon his entry into the league, Amen Thompson will immediately be one of the NBA’s best athletes. And in the top four of this class, Thompson is probably the best passer.
Combine this with his phenomenal size and it’s not hard to see why some see Thompson as the highest ceiling prospect in this draft outside of Victor Wembanyama. The upside is clear: a supersized point guard with tremendous athletic ability that translates to the engine of a top NBA offense. However, the downside is also clear: if Thompson doesn’t develop a credible jumpshot, the range of NBA outcomes in which he succeeds is extremely limited.
It’s boom or bust and many teams don’t have the stomach (or need) for such a gamble.
Brandon Miller
Age: 20 years old
Height: 6’9”
Wingspan: 7’1”
Weight: 201 lbs
Position: SF
Brandon Miller is a very good NBA prospect. He’s a big wing with strong shooting ability, solid defensive versatility, a good feel for scoring off the dribble. Outside of his shooting, there’s nothing he does tremendously well, but he’s a B+ in almost every major category. And that’s kind of the point of a pick like Miller - he’s a safe bet.
It’s reasonable to envision his NBA floor as a starting-level wing and a ceiling as an All-Star. Beyond that, and you’d be in the small percentage of people who consider Miller to possess superstar upside. Perimeter players like this usually possess a level of strength and passing ability at the prospect level beyond what Miller currently has. For example, Miller’s first step isn’t bad, but it’s certainly not where Jalen Green or Anthony Edwards were going into the NBA. And while he’s a pretty decent passer, he’s definitely not Luka Doncic or LaMelo Ball.
The appeal of Miller is that he could range anywhere from being a starter with an extremely complimentary skillset or a multi-time All-Star who doesn’t ever finish above 3rd in MVP votes (Paul George/Jayson Tatum). It’s well above where most third overall picks finish their careers.
Rockets Mock Draft:
Brandon Miller
Last week, I was actually on the opposite end of this argument. Like many, I believe the Rockets don’t have their offensive engine yet. Most people with this belief tend to favor someone like Amen Thompson. I’ve moved the other way on this to accomodate one specific player and it’s not the player you might be thinking of: Alperen Sengun.
I cannot shake the feeling that the Rockets actually do have their team’s future offensive engine sitting right under their nose. As flawed as Sengun is, I truly believe he’s the best player on Houston’s roster right now. Sengun scores more efficiently than everyone, passes more instinctually than everyone, and has a greater on-court impact than everyone. If this isn’t what an offensive engine should look like, what is?
What the Rockets did last year with Alperen Sengun should be a crime in 50 states. On multiple occasions, Stephen Silas failed to properly showcase Sengun’s ability to be an offensive engine - even for bench units. Kevin Porter’s injury midway through the season left another golden opportunity for Silas to increase Sengun’s usage and it still didn’t happen. Because of this, the Rockets are now entering the offseason with a flawed batch of intel on Sengun.
As stated before, as of this moment, the Rockets likely won’t have a choice between these two prospects on draft night. However, if that changes (trade, surprise pick, etc…) they should choose Miller. He offers Houston a safe, starting caliber floor and a complimentary skillset for Alperen Sengun.
Amen Thompson
Amen Thompson may be a riskier pick than Brandon Miller and a worse fit with Alperen Sengun, but the Rockets should not compromise on star potential and draft outside of this tier. Taking Thompson likely means things are going to get a bit weird over the next twelve months, especially if Houston lands James Harden. Having James Harden, Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, and Kevin Porter all on the same roster is just too clunky offensively. While it’s true that having multiple playmakers is a good problem to have, there is a point of diminishing returns.
Translation:
Even if Harden doesn’t come, there’s going to be a lot cooks in this kitchen and Houston will need to make at least one trade, if not multiple to balance out the roster.
That said, Thompson is too tantalizing of a prospect to pass up on and he could be a perfect long-term fit alongside Jalen Green. There are certainly talented players outside of this tier with good upside, but their star upside is just less certain than Miller and Thompson. The worst thing Houston could do here is get cute and take someone like Ausar Thompson or Cam Whitmore. If they can’t get Miller, Thompson is a project worth betting on.