Salman's 2023 NBA Big Board + Rockets Mock Draft (Tier 2)

Shouldn't be this much of a question

While it’s certainly true that there are years of the draft where the top two picks are debatable, this shouldn’t be one of those years. We’ve fortunately reached a consensus that Victor Wembanyama should belong by himself in Tier 1. But for some reason, some of us still aren’t convinced that the second best player in this draft also belongs in a tier by himself. It’s understandable if you want to take the time to properly evaluate other options. However, after that evaluation, this isn’t a tough decision.

Tier 2

1. Scoot Henderson

Age: 19 years old

Height: 6’2”

Wingspan: 6’9”

Weight: 196 lbs

Position: PG

To start, Henderson is a physical freak of nature. Like his G League predecessor Jalen Green, Henderson is an incredible athlete with an explosive first step. Unlike Green, Henderson was able to hit the ground running because he could combine this athleticism with an NBA-ready body. This point needs to be hammered home: Henderson is built like an absolute tank. He weighs as much as soon-to-be fellow rookie Chet Holmgren did last year despite the 10-inch height difference!

His primary motivation every time down the floor appears to be using that quick first step to dunk on everyone in his path. When he’s not dunking, Henderson has the craft and touch to warrant confidence in his finishing at the basket. His ability to adjust speeds is rare for someone this young. Often times, younger players that are this athletic take time before learning out how to calibrate their speed. Jalen Green is still figuring out how to modulate his lightning speed going into his third season.

But what separates Henderson from any of the top guard prospects I’ve watched these past three years is his poise and advanced pick and roll ability. As often as it’s used, the NBA pick-and-roll is incredibly hard for young guards to learn. De’Aaron Fox, one of the best point guards in the league, finally mastered the skill last year - his age 24 season. And while Henderson isn’t a “master” pick-and-roll ball handler yet, he’s well beyond any point guard prospect that’s come out since at least LaMelo Ball. Cade Cunningham may be the only other guy that’s worthy of this discussion.

Henderson just has a very good feel for the game. I’m reluctant to make the full-throated comparison, but you get a Chris Paul vibe watching him operate in these situations. He even has the signature CP3 mid-range jumper down, though he settled for it a tad too much last year. This can be corrected though and he makes the right decision for his team a lot more than he makes the wrong one. This is why there’s little doubt that he’s going to be a well-rounded offensive point guard.

Defensively, Henderson works hard on the ball and is active off the ball trying to force turnovers and playing help-side defense. He’s also a strong rebounder for his height at 6’2”. Most impressively, he doesn’t let the load he carries offensively impact how hard he works on defense. Henderson’s probably not going to be an elite guard defender like Jrue Holiday, but it’s not hard to see him becoming a good to very good defender who falls just short of All-Defense status like Kyle Lowry or Mike Conley. At the minimum, he’s unlikely to be someone to worry about when building out your team.

The biggest concern everyone has about Scoot appears to be his scoring efficiency. While he’s certainly not Steph Curry, I wouldn’t read too much into his shooting splits. Henderson suffered an ankle injury sometime at the beginning of this season that clearly impacted his percentages by a bit. It’s hard to notice at first, but you can see him being ginger about landing on that ankle coming down on layup attempts after the injury. If I were to ball-park where he’s actually at from a shooting perspective, 34% from three feels like a decent bet.

His shooting is closer to where Jalen Green was before the draft than where Scottie Barnes was: needs work, but not reconstruction.

Rockets Mock Draft:

2. Scoot Henderson

On the whole, Henderson is simply an awesome NBA prospect. In my estimation, he’s probably the best prospect from the 2021, 2022, and 2023 draft classes combined outside of Victor Wembanyama. I’m even willing to say that there could’ve been a real discussion at number one this year if Henderson hadn’t gotten hurt. There’s just not a lot of boxes that he won’t check for you as a franchise point guard prospect.

He’s the real deal.

It doesn’t take much analysis to know that he’d be an amazing addition to Houston’s young nucleus. He could potentially become their engine on offense right away. This is clearly their biggest need right now and it’s why the James Harden free agency discussion is a no-brainer (or should be). If Charlotte foolishly passes on Henderson at number two, the Rockets should explore every avenue to trade up and take Henderson. The only prospects that warrant keeping off the table in such a trade are Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Jabari Smith.

Everything else, including Houston’s future draft capital, should be up for grabs. Henderson’s just that good.