Should the Rockets pursue a future reunion with James Harden?

You know you’ve thought about it

When James Harden was traded to the Brooklyn Nets last year, he posted the following on his Instagram page the next morning:

jharden13

A post shared by James Harden (@jharden13)

(Note: If you don’t want to read a possibly meaningless breakdown of this Instagram post, skip to “Is a James Harden return to Houston even possible?”)

Putting aside the actual video, the caption Harden penned to the city of Houston is what most people took away from the post. In situations like this, it’s not uncommon for athletes to have some sort of message or social media post prepared in advance of a major trade or free agency decision. A lot of them are clearly ghost-written and sometimes athletes are even forthcoming about that (ex: LeBron James’ co-wrote his return-to-Cleveland-announcement with Sports Illustrated writer Lee Jenkins in 2014). And while Harden obviously had someone make the video montage for him, it was clear that he wrote the caption himself - perhaps even that morning. 

This sounded like Harden would’ve said in-person to the media at a scrum or press conference. In fact, it doesn’t look too far off from some of his other Instagram captions. The dead giveaway is how concise the message is. Harden is a man of few words and if this caption was anything longer than two paragraphs, it would’ve warranted suspicion.

The post was heartfelt and most notably, evoked a quality that Harden doesn’t get enough credit for: his loyalty. It might sound bizarre considering everything that’s happened, but Harden’s always been incredibly loyal to the people and places in his life. For example, Harden regularly hosts charity events in his hometown Los Angeles community and the city of Houston (“JH-Town Weekend”) even though he doesn’t live in either of those places anymore. Harden’s now well-documented close relationship to Daryl Morey and Tad Brown are only a tip of the iceberg in regards to how loyal he is to the people in his life. 

Now unlike Damian Lillard or Bradley Beal, Harden viewed his professional loyalty as a two-way street. He’s had two asks of every NBA team he’s ever been on: adequate compensation and a legitimate chance at a championship. When he didn’t receive the compensation he wanted in Oklahoma City, he was traded to Houston. When he felt he could no longer compete for a championship with the Rockets, he asked out. In his mind, this was pretty cut and dry.

Was it actually that cut and dry? Of course not. Harden played a significant part in why the Rockets were no-longer serious title contenders by 2021. However, it is worth noting that up until that point, he signed multiple contract extensions and never once seriously explored free agency in his career. That last part is important and we’ll revisit it.

But back to this Instagram post. Here’s an important and subtle part of his message that some Rockets fans caught onto:

I gave my mind, body, and soul in hopes of bringing glory to the city. I fell short and for that, I am forever indebted. It’s far from a goodbye as I pay all my debts. TMC H Town!

Harden expressed multiple times that he felt a debt to Houston for betting on his talent. And he’s clearly implying here that he hoped to pay back that perceived debt with a championship. And that’s not uncommon of a star player to say when they leave a team. What’s eyebrow-raising are those last two lines:

It’s far from a goodbye as I pay all my debts. TMC H Town!

Take away that previous line about Harden wanting to pay his “debt” back to Houston with a championship for a second.

These last two lines are pretty ambiguous. It could just mean wanting to repay the city with continued charitable contributions. But when you insert that context back in, Harden clearly implies that he still feels a sense of obligation to bring a championship to Houston. He essentially hinted at a return without tying himself down to any promises.

Is a James Haden return to Houston even possible?

In short, yes. The Rockets will have max cap space as soon as next summer and Harden can opt-out of his contract with the 76ers at exactly the same time. Even if he were to opt-in, the Rockets can push their cap space into 2024 and pursue him then. The timing and financials work either way you slice it at this moment in time.

Of course, things could change. Should Houston use that space prematurely on something else or if Harden agrees to a long-term deal with Philadelphia, this theoretical falls apart. Until then, that possibility remains on the table.

Is a James Harden return to Houston practical?

Well, it depends. How good the Rockets look over the next two years will give greater clarity to that answer. 

If they’re at a point where it’s clear Harden could be the final piece in making them a contender, then it’s absolutely practical. While it’s true that Harden will be 34 and 35 when the Rockets have opportunities to acquire him, high-IQ players in their 30s like Chris Paul are pushing their expiration dates farther back with each passing year. Harden profiles as someone who is skilled and smart enough to be a high impact player late in his career.

Now, the Rockets would have to manage his minutes far better the second time around. This means significantly less 35+ minute outings for the stubborn shooting guard.

The bigger question is does it make sense for Harden? Bear in mind what was pointed out earlier: Harden has never truly explored free agency at any point in his career. He’s signed an extension at pretty much every opportunity he’s gotten. Even as a free agent this year, his mind was made up to return to Philadelphia so he didn’t take meetings with other teams.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he wants to go through that process of being courted by multiple teams at least once in his career.

With that said, 76ers have an awesome roster and a front office that he trusts enough to take a multi-million dollar pay cut for. Joel Embiid is firmly in his prime at 28-years-old and already one of the ten best players in basketball. Why would he leave a situation like that? It looks rather impractical for Harden at face-value.

We’ll get into how it could become practical in a moment.

How could this all look like on the floor anyways?

If James Harden were to return to Houston in 2023 or 2024, he would like come back to be an offensive orchestrator for the Rockets. As things currently stand, the Rockets don’t have anyone on the roster who realistically projects to be the best facilitator on a title contender. Kevin Porter. and Alperen Sengun are both intriguing, but they’re also both unproven for one reason or another. Much like Chris Paul joining the Phoenix Suns in 2020, Harden would be the finishing piece in this theoretical.

Like Devin Booker, Jalen Green would need to round out his game and become a reliable secondary pick-and-roll ball handler to Harden. A backcourt of Harden and Green spells doom defensively, so Jabari Smith and Tari Eason would need to hit their ceilings as defenders. The Rockets would also probably have to trade Alperen Sengun and get at least one more reliable front court defender to start for them. 

Maybe Usman Garuba becomes that guy? Maybe they get lucky and land Victor Wembanyama in next year’s draft? Maybe Eason or Smith slide down to center and Jae’Sean Tate remains a starter to fill that gap?

Try picturing a lineup like this:

James Harden

Jalen Green

Jae’Sean Tate

Tari Eason

Jabari Smith

It would require a lot of work on Smith’s part to learn the center position, he has better-than-expected rim protection instincts already.

The point is, the Rockets would need to build a monster front court defense to compensate for deficiencies in the backcourt.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are an excellent recent example of this:

Darius Garland

Donovan Mitchell

Isaac Okoro

Evan Mobley

Jarett Allen

It’s a pretty unconventional as most teams have their best point-of-attack defender residing in the backcourt, not the front court. However, it worked for Cleveland last year and to their credit, Houston has used Harden as a reliable big man defender in the past so that could open up a window for some cross-matching. Maybe Tate or Eason take on tough guard assignments night-to-night while Harden stays on bigs?

This is all theoretical because we don’t know how the Rockets roster will look like in 1-2 years. Then again, this whole article is theoretical because it’s we don’t know if this reunion would ever actually happen.

From a pure basketball perspective though, it could work. And Harden is talented enough to justify Houston doing everything in their power to try and make it work.

How would this be appealing to James Harden?

In all honesty, much like Kawhi Leonard leaving the Toronto Raptors for his hometown LA Clippers, it would have to be for sentimental reasons. Is there a basketball case for Harden joining the Rockets? Possibly, but it’s still hard to envision Houston becoming a better basketball situation than Philadelphia in the next 1-2 years. But this is why we down Harden’s farewell message at the top.

The Rockets would need to appeal to Harden’s quid pro quo version of loyalty. He clearly felt a sense of unfinished business when he was departing Houston. The organization would need to play on that emotion in a theoretical free agent pitch. There’s also that narrative/legacy element of “returning to hang a banner” that may appeal to Harden in the same way it did for LeBron James in 2014.

However, the most important thing that has to happen in order to make this reunion happen is out of Houston’s hands: a Philadelphia title. Harden left Houston because of the burden all star players feel in their early 30s when they haven’t won a ring yet. The 76ers are a well built contender and will remain that way as long as Harden and Embiid are healthy. Harden’s not going to jeopardize a good thing until he gets that monkey off his back.

Here’s to hoping he does it.