Stop overthinking Jalen Green
It's really not this complicated
The NBA has never seen a player like Victor Wembanyama before. The closest facsimile to Wembanyama is probably Rockets Hall of Famer Ralph Sampson. But Sampson never played in the modern-NBA, nor did he play long enough for most basketball fans to properly contextualize how special of a talent he was. For these reasons, Wembanyama was mould-breaking prospect coming into the NBA and remains such as a rookie on the Spurs.
With players like this, it’s sometimes hard to envision how one’s career is going to shake out or how their impact is felt game-to-game. It’s why nobody knew what to expect of Wembanyama’s rookie year and partially why each game has been such a spectacle. We don’t know how any of this is going to play out because the mould hasn’t existed before. All you’re left to do if you’re a team like the Spurs is to draft the player, observe his NBA games closely, and make decisions about the roster based on the data you’re collecting in real time.
Mould-breaking prospects are rare in 2023. The NBA is nearly 80-years-old and with that comes thousands of possible comparisons for every draft prospect. Even if a perfect 1-to-1 comparison doesn’t exist, you can usually find something good enough to get a decent career projection with some minor delineations. It’s sometimes tough to find a good comparison in the moment, but that doesn’t mean one doesn’t exist. It may just take some time post-draft to get a clearer picture.
Rockets guard Jalen Green was not a mould-breaking prospect. That doesn’t mean Green wasn’t an awesome NBA prospect. It just means that by the time the 2021 NBA Draft rolled around, most close observers were able to identify his league archetype and make player comparisons accordingly. The following two players were Green’s most frequent comparisons: Zach LaVine and Bradley Beal.
So it’s puzzling why many Rockets fans feel disappointed after watching Green play in the early season. There’s a fairly clear pathway for Green to becoming a multi-time All-Star and it may not involve this magical “third year leap” that many fans are craving. Neither LaVine or Beal had drastic jump in both production and efficiency simultaneously until their fifth seasons in the NBA.
Beal didn’t make an All-Star team until his 6th year in the league. LaVine didn’t make one until his 7th season. While Green, LaVine, and Beal possessed impressive physical tools as prospects (particularly Green and LaVine), neither are freaks of nature from a size standpoint. And while all three possessed decent passing instincts, they weren’t gifted processors of the game coming into the NBA. This is a player archetype that inherently takes time to develop.
And that’s not uncommon. For one-and-done prospects, third year leaps are rarer than they’re made out to be. NBA translation in general is faster when players come into the league with those described otherworldly physical tools (like Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, and Shaquille O’Neil) or that advanced feel for the game (like Luka Doncic, Trae Young, and LaMelo Ball), but that’s not the kind of prospect Green was. Alperen Sengun is finding his career success much earlier because he was a gifted processor of the game.
For Green, the game is still slowing down. And that’s fine.
Improvement is happening, but you have to see it on a micro-level versus a drastic year-over-year statistical improvement that a “leap” normally accompanies. For example, Green is posting a career highs in three-point percentage, rebounding percentage, and free throw attempt rate. From an eye test perspective, he’s notably stronger, his handle has gotten a little tighter, and his defense has gotten a little better (Green’s still a bad defender overall, but better). These are things you won’t notice if you’re just watching every game watching for 30-point outbursts (which may still come later).
I’m actually confident Green will improve from what we’ve seen thus far, but let’s just assume status quo for the sake of this argument. Let’s say Green’s season ended today. Here are his numbers stacked up against Bradley Beal in his respective third season:
Bradley Beal’s 3rd season (per 100 possessions):
23.4 points
5.9 rebounds
4.7 assists
52.1% True Shooting
Jalen Green’s 3rd season (per 100 possessions):
28.5 points
7.3 rebounds
4.5 assists
52.9% True Shooting
The bottom line is you were someone who believed Green’s All-Star upside, that confidence shouldn’t be shaken. It just may take more time than many were expecting.
Or it may not? We’re only 12 games into the season so it would unwise to rule out “leap”. Green’s numbers as a whole are unlikely to stay this unimpressive. For example, Green is shooting a career low in two-point percentage. And it’s starkly different from how he’s usually shot from two.
Jalen Green two-point percentage:
2021-22:
50.2%
2022-23
47.1%
2023-24
42.1%
If Green just shot exactly what he shot last season from two, he’d be averaging a point more per game and a career high in true shooting percentage (55.6%). If he shoots how he did his rookie season from two-point range, it would be 56.8% true shooting.
So Green is likely going to be more efficient than what we’ve seen if he just gets back to his career averages from two and maintains his current three-point shooting. Theoretically, he could also get better from three or two (or both). This would drag his true shooting into the high 50s. If he gets that efficient this season, his scoring numbers would go up and this season would qualify as a “leap”.
Here’s another factor to consider: the Rockets usage of Green. Alperen Sengun has grabbed the mantel for best player on the team in the early season. While that’s helped simplify roles for most players on the team, it’s left Green in sort of a limbo. Ime Udoka has chosen to keep Green out there by himself for long stretches with the 2nd unit (meaning without Sengun and Fred VanVleet) and it’s led to some tough offensive basketball to watch.
Green is left without Houston’s two best offensive organizers and left to make things happen by himself. While this may be beneficial for Green long-term in building habits as a lead guard, he’s clearly not ready for that role just yet. His best role in an NBA offense right now is as a secondary ball handler. But maybe the idea is for Green to get used to these minutes so when Amen Thompson returns, it’s not as jarring to the Rockets rotation?
It’s tough to know. Whatever the case, it’s objectively a bad idea in the short-term. Not only is Green out there on an island from a creation standpoint, these lineups have terrible vertical spacing. Jock Landale is not a good pick and roll big right now. Whenever Green tries running pick and rolls with Landale, defenses are swarming Green because they don’t respect Landale as a roller.
Having Sengun lead the bench units with Green allows three things to happen:
Green gets to be a secondary option, rather than a primary.
Green has a big that’s actually respected rolling to the basket. This will open up more opportunities for Green himself.
The development of the Green-Sengun offensive partnership.
I understand Udoka really likes what he’s getting from VanVleet and Sengun as a duo, but at this point, Sengun will thrive with anyone as a duo.
Long-term, that last point on that list is extremely important. Green and Sengun are the franchise cornerstones and they need to get as many reps together as the Rockets can possibly give them. If this is Houston’s “Murray and Jokic”, then they need to be intimately familiar with each other’s game. This will make the chemistry instinctual rather than “learn-as-you-go” when it’s time for Houston to play in games that matter.
And this is the biggest reason Rockets fans are overthinking Jalen Green:
Green may have thought to be “the franchise guy” as the second overall pick in 2021, but Sengun has lapped him. Contrary to what many believe, this is a totally fine development. It relieves the pressure of Green having to live up to a billing that he likely wouldn’t have been able to reach. And he can absolutely still be a cornerstone piece for the Rockets long-term - just not the piece.
His ceiling as a player was always best suited to being the second star on a championship contender. Sengun’s ascension just made it more obvious for everyone else. With second stars, you can afford to wait on player development. Players like Sengun give you the luxury to wait.
In other words, Rockets fans shouldn’t panic because:
A. We’re 12 games into the season.
B. Green doesn’t have to make “the leap” this year.
C. Houston’s already found their Batman.
It’s okay if Robin takes his time catching up to speed.