Ahead of the 2021 NBA Draft, I had Jalen Green ranked fourth coming out of the G League. While I was indeed high on the 19-year-old guard, I didn’t quite see a ceiling for him that exceeded that of Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley. From my perspective, Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs had a higher NBA floor. I don’t bring this up to pat myself on the back as my big board still ended up being a mess (thanks to Scottie Barnes, Josh Giddey, Jalen Johnson, and Franz Wagner).
I bring it up to discuss why I wasn’t as high as some were on Green.
To start, there were serious concerns about his defensive viability as a shooting guard in the modern NBA. At 6’4” tall with a 6’8” wingspan, Green’s size was rather underwhelming for a budding NBA wing. He also wasn’t tenacious enough to guard NBA point guards on a nightly basis or strong enough to outmuscle the bigger wings. This made it fairly obvious right off the bat that unless Green underwent a serious physical transformation, he was going to be someone that you had to hide on defense.
However, Green was a prospect drafted for his offensive potential, so let’s be fair and focus our discussion on that potential.
As an isolation scorer, there was no question that Green was the real deal. His first step was elite and his jump shot showed some promise at the G League level (36.5% from three-point range and 83% from the free throw line). His athletic tools made him theoretically dangerous in transition. He also displayed ball handling craft that helped him create separation as a three-level scorer at all levels of basketball until this point.
This may have been enough to be a dangerous offensive weapon in the ‘90s or ‘00s, but in the modern NBA, it’s not good enough by itself. This is because modern defenses are more sophisticated and trained to contain isolation players much better than they were two decades ago. The removal of illegal-defense rules in the early 2000s have given teams much more freedom playing help-side defense. This is why pick-and-roll has been king for the better part of two decades of NBA basketball.
And Jalen Green was a weak pick-and-roll prospect coming out of the G League. Not only was his handle not refined, his decision-making left much to be desired. His passing skill was rudimentary, as was his real-time processing ability. Green’s pathway to becoming a truly dominant scorer in the NBA was limited without growth in his ability to run the pick-and-roll.
Where does that leave Green now? Well, defensively he’s gotten a lot better, but he’s still lacking a lot physically. I frankly don’t see a path forward where Green can be viable defensively as a starting caliber wing in the NBA. He’s bulking up just fine, but if he bulks up too much, it’ll start detracting from his offensive game. The wiry frame gives him an athletic advantage in terms of speed and flexibility converting at the rim.
From where I stand, the long-term play for Green on this roster is the point guard position. I have a greater degree of trust in someone like Cam Whitmore’s strong frame on the perimeter defensively. And frankly, Whitmore’s just a a better bet to be a more efficient scorer at this point. Point blank, the numbers just bear that out.
Green’s jumpshot is just too streaky right now. He’ll go on long stretches shooting 30% from three, go scorched earth for a bit at like 38% from three, and then end up right back at his career average of 34% from three. For a wing that doesn’t defend or facilitate at a high level in today’s NBA, that’s just not good enough to justify starting. It’s really that simple.
No matter how elite Green’s first step is, this whole conversation is moot if he doesn’t get better at shooting.
His most viable path forward toward stardom long-term is also as a lead guard. While he’s still developing as a passer (more on that later), Green came into the NBA miles ahead of where Whitmore is now as a passing prospect. The instincts are there and he can probably get to the point of being decent. He’ll have some long-term competition with Amen Thompson, but Green has a big edge on Thompson in the shooting department. This will probably give him a leg up in the rotation (for now).
From a processing standpoint, the Rockets have made an effort to cram as many pick-and-roll possessions down his throat as they can (8th in the league in total field goal attempts as the ball handler in PnR). He’s still in the 51st percentile in points per possession, but this is a very shrewd move by the organization. Not only is the data important, but so are the reps if they decide to continue to move forward with Green as a core player. He needs to see every variation of pick-and-roll defense if he’s going to reach the highest levels of scoring efficiency.
Green’s still a fairly weak ball handler and you see that anytime he tries to dribble in and through traffic. It honestly may be better for Udoka and the team to give Green’s starting spot to Whitmore or Tari Eason (when he returns) while he leads bench units as a ball handler. That way, you’re not taking reps away from more deserving players and you’re giving Green some time alone by himself without Fred VanVleet. It may be painful to watch, but we’ve seen reps improve the pick and roll efficiency of all of Green’s most common NBA comparisons (Zach LaVine, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal).
On this note, it’s important to note that there’s a spectrum of stardom of this player archetype.
The baseline is Zach LaVine, who frankly isn’t good enough to commit max dollars to in a second apron environment. While LaVine indeed took steps forward since his rookie year, he never got to the point of being good enough to be the lead ball handler on a serious playoff team. Bradley Beal was almost that kind of player in Washington, but still ultimately fell short of reaching that benchmark. Only Devin Booker became good enough to be *that guy* at some point these last few years.
And with Booker, you’re probably talking about one of the best player development stories in the modern NBA. That’s a high bar for Green to clear and he’s starting without being anywhere near the level of shooter that Booker was coming into the NBA (41.1% from three-point range at Kentucky).
The point is, that’s his only remaining roadmap to being an impact All-Star - lead guard status. And as discussed, it’s also his roadmap to being on the Rockets team long-term. Given how far away Green is from reaching this level, it’s reasonable for many to give up on his star upside. It’s highly unlikely he doesn’t figure it out as a rotation guard in the NBA at some point given his raw talent and physical tools, but that’s not what he was drafted to be.
Houston also has prospects behind Green on the totem pole that are flat-out outplaying him. Not only is this a black-eye on the organization for drafting him 2nd in 2021, their pending financial crunch will force the issue. Green will be dealt by the next trade deadline if he doesn’t step up in a major way. That’s how these things typically go.
Hell, with how well Eason and Whitmore are playing this year, it will take a monumental stretch of games to fight off obvious internal conversations about Green’s starting spot.
As someone who viewed expectations of a “third year leap” for Green to be impractical, we’re kind of well beyond that point. The reality is even if he shouldn’t have been expected to take a leap this year, he kind of has to do that to save his starting spot on this team. The competition coming from behind him is too stiff. Houston has drafted well enough to be able to move forward without him as part of their long-term core.
While that’s a blessing for the organization, it’s a conundrum for Green.