What's happening and who deserves credit?
What's happening and who deserves credit?
Making sense of the Rockets' success
After Sunday night’s nail-biting victory against the defending champion Denver Nuggets, the Houston Rockets have the win percentage of a 55-win basketball team. Most reasonable people would acknowledge it’s unlikely the Rockets actually finish with such a record. However, there’s something special happening in Houston. And that something isn’t just the coronation of center Alperen Sengun as the franchise’s centerpiece.
After toiling away for three years under former head coach Stephen Silas, the Houston Rockets have found their team identity under new head coach Ime Udoka. That identity is one of competence and impartiality. You are rewarded for your triumphs and held accountable for your shortcomings, regardless of status or perceived upside. In training camp, Udoka stated all roles and opportunities would be up for grabs, and so far, he’s delivered on this promise. He also targeted well-fitting talents this summer that have gotten the Rockets back to competing on a night-in and night-out basis.
Prized offseason acquisition Fred VanVleet has done his job by being a model floor general who’s helped lower Houston’s turnover percentage as a team from 16.2% last year to 13.2% this year. VanVleet was also quick to correctly identify Sengun as the best player on the roster and he’s fed him the ball accordingly. Sengun has been the undeniable talent powering the Rockets’ offense. And the role players (particularly Dillon Brooks) have complimented Sengun and VanVleet nicely.
There are also no holdovers on the roster from the Daryl Morey regime, meaning, GM Rafael Stone acquired all of the talent that’s on the floor right now. Stone’s made mistakes and miscalculations, but you can’t take that away from him. You get credit for all the hits and misses. And Stone, for as frustrating as some of his decisions have been, has had more hits than misses.
Essentially, these parties deserve to share the credit for the Rockets hot start:
Rafael Stone and his front office
Ime Udoka and his coaching staff
Fred VanVleet and the other offseason acquisitions
Alperen Sengun and the rest of Houston’s young core
Okay, but what should one make of Houston’s hot start?
Now that we’ve assigned credit here, what exactly does any of this mean? How good is this Rockets team?
Let’s first look at the numbers (per Cleaning The Glass):
Record: 6-3 (6th in the NBA)
Offensive RTG: 115.5 (7th in the NBA)
Defensive RTG: 107.4 (5th in the NBA)
Net RTG: +8.1 (4th in the NBA)
The fundamentals of this team appear to be rock-solid. However, since the sample size is so small, these numbers require more context. More specifically, it’s worth looking into how lucky the Rockets have gotten in regards to their schedule. Nine games is not enough time for any team to play a full spectrum of NBA competition. This is why most people should wait until the 15-20 game mark before even looking at these numbers (excuse the hypocrisy for a moment).
It’s important to look at four factors in particular (with caveats attached):
7 out of Houston’s 9 games have been at home
They’re also due for their first road win of the season.
The’ve played the Hornets without Miles Bridges, the Kings twice without De’Aaron Fox, the Lakers without Anthony Davis, the Pelicans without CJ McCollum, and the Nuggets without Jamal Murray.
You get credit for beating who’s in front of you. Also, the Nuggets are still amazing without Jamal Murray - they just don’t have the same playoff ceiling.
The Rockets have had the 2nd best opponent three-point shooting luck in the NBA in terms of percentage of shots made (32.2%)
They’ve also gone from allowing the worst three-point defense in basketball last season (38.7 three-pointers allowed per 100 possessions) to 14th (35.2 three-pointers allowed). That’s a drastic improvement.
On the flip side, they’ve shot a stellar 37.0% from three as a team with career outlier shooting performances from Dillon Brooks, Jae’Sean Tate, Jalen Green, Tari Eason, and Jabari Smith.
3 of these 5 players are under 23-years-old and may well have gotten better at shooting. Dillon Brooks also shot amazing from three in the World Cup.
After taking all that in, I’m left to believe the following:
The Rockets may not be title contenders, but I certainly don’t believe they’re going to be a bottom 10 team again this year. Going one step further, I'm confident Houston will have a Top 15 defense and a Top 20 offense this season. That would mean they likely finish with a near .500 record which would put them in the Play-In Tournament. That’s essentially what the Oklahoma City Thunder were last season.
And that’s all you could’ve asked out of Houston this year. Even if they don’t make the playoffs, being in that tournament validates the steps that brought the organization to this point. It validates the rebuild, it validates the Ime Udoka hire, and perhaps most importantly, it cements Alperen Sengun as the franchise player. And that’s all you could’ve asked for out of a Rockets season this year.
If they actually make the playoffs, it’s gravy.